Florida Keys Market Update & Predictions: September 2025

As we step into the final quarter of 2025, the Florida Keys real estate market shows a return to balance after two years of dynamic shifts. While summer brought record-level activity across Key West and the Middle and Lower Keys, September reflected the usual seasonal cooling with prices stabilizing, days on market lengthening, and buyers regaining negotiation power. Let’s take a closer look at how each area performed and what these numbers could mean heading into year-end.

Key West (33040): Cooling into a Healthy Balance

The Key West market remains strong even as activity slows seasonally. The average sale price rose to $1.34M, up 26% year-over-year, driven by luxury and mid-range homes. The median price reached $877,500, slightly below August’s $900K.Inventory increased 13% YoY to 1,414 listings, though new listings fell to 199. Homes are taking longer to sell at 117 days on average, yet demand remains steady with an absorption rate of 10.16.

Outlook: Expect stable prices through the holidays as sellers adjust and well-priced homes continue to attract buyers.

Middle Keys (33043): Resilient Growth, Steady Demand

The Middle Keys continue to thrive with an average sale price of $1.35M, up 26% YoY, and a slight rise in median values. Despite 22% fewer new listings, sales climbed to 136 homes, showing strong buyer activity. Homes now spend 117 days on market, but pricing confidence remains firm.

Outlook: The region is on track for healthy, sustainable growth into 2026, offering a balanced market where both buyers and sellers have room to negotiate.

Lower Keys (33042): Signs of Stabilization After Correction

The Lower Keys show a 35% drop in average sale price from $1.63M to $1.06M, reflecting fewer luxury sales. However, the median price rebounded 11% MoM to $999K, signaling early recovery. Inventory is steady at 146 listings, with few new entries (15). Homes take around 90 days to sell, indicating a slower but stabilizing market.

Outlook: The area favors buyers for now, though limited new listings could tighten supply again by winter.

Florida Keys Outlook: Q4 2025 and Beyond

The Florida Keys are moving toward sustained equilibrium after years of volatility. Inventory is steady, pricing is holding, and longer market times point to a healthier, more deliberate pace.

Prediction: Expect moderate price growth and balanced absorption through late 2025, with renewed demand likely in early 2026 as mortgage rates ease.

Takeaway: Balance is back. For sellers, strategic pricing and presentation are key. For buyers, now is the moment to act before spring competition heats up.